Is there enough work coming to meet the plan?
The weighted value of work still to be won, set against what the business needs to win. Pipeline judged on volume alone tends to flatter, because it rarely accounts for how likely, or how soon, the work will convert.
Get a finance reviewWhether the business is winning enough of the right work, at a cost that makes the growth worth having.
See all KPIs →Sum of (opportunity value × stage probability), compared with revenue still to be won in the period
Weighted pipeline of around 1.5 to 3 times the revenue still to be won over the next two quarters is a common working target.
The value of opportunities not yet won, adjusted for how likely each one is to convert. Each opportunity is given a probability based on its stage, for example 10% at first conversation, 50% at proposal and 80% at verbal agreement, and its value is multiplied by that probability. The total is then set against the revenue the business still needs to win over the same period.
Unweighted pipeline tends to flatter. A long list of early conversations can look reassuring while very little of it is likely to convert in time to matter. Weighted pipeline, compared with the gap in the forecast, shows whether sales are on track months before a shortfall reaches the bank balance. It also tells you when to hire, since committing to headcount without cover in the pipeline is one of the most expensive mistakes a services business can make.
Use a small number of clear stages with agreed probabilities, and check them against actual win rates every six months. Record an expected start date as well as a value, because work that converts next year does not fill a gap next quarter. Remove stale opportunities promptly: anything with no movement in 90 days should be downgraded or closed.
Most owner-managed businesses don't, or they work it out in a way that flatters the result. We'll calculate it from your own numbers and show you what it's telling you.
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